Darran over at A Langers Blog put up a graph to show the pass and fail rates of cars taking the National Car Test (NCT) in Ireland. The percentages are freely available online but it was only when I saw them in the graph that I realised something smells funny about the NCT.
The goal of the NCT was to remove unsafe cars from the road and as part of this they have introduced more and more things that cars can fail on and pulled more cars into the NCT net, yet the percentages for pass and fail stay the same.
| Year | Pass First time | Pass Retest |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 51.9% (483.466) | 90.3% (396,130) |
| 2009 | 51.5% (444,935) | 90.8% (367,404) |
| 2008 | 51.9% (433,677) | 90.8% (349,225) |
| 2007 | 51.8% (355,708) | 90.8% (285,556) |
The level of defects in cars seems to stay stunningly consistent? This leads me to wonder, could the NCT be working off a quota system for passes and fails or is the published data just wrong?
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